Independence, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

788
FXUS65 KVEF 020056
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
556 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of
the forecast area through Tuesday as low pressure pulls remnant
tropical moisture into the region. The greatest rainfall amounts
will likely be in northwestern Arizona tonight into tomorrow. Cooler
temperatures can also be expected areawide before they begin to
climb again midweek.

&&

.UPDATE...Mesoanalysis this evening shows two very different areas.
The first is the scattered showers and thunderstorms that developed
in the Southern Great Basin and northern Inyo County this afternoon.
This is where there was ample sunshine to allow for weak
destabilization along with weak upper level diffluence. At the
surface though, moisture was lacking as PWATs remains around 0.50in
and surface RH was dry. Very little rain was reported with activity
in this area, tough recent webcam images in northern Lincoln COunty
do suggest some saturation and rain reaching the ground. Instead
gusty winds were the main impact as surface dry air resulted in
gusty outflow winds. Gusts of 30-40 MPH were reported under some of
these storms, especially in Inyo County where instability was
highest. As the sunset and instability wanes in this region, so
should the precipitation. Updated the evening and overnight forecast
to reflect this trend, with most of the shower and thunderstorms
ending by 11PM tonight.

Further south, satellite imagery showed a circulation off the
southern California Coast slowly moving northeast. Ample moisture
was advecting from this feature- PWATs and dewpoints increased in
San Bernardino, Clark, and Mohave counties on moist 850mb flow.
Despite this moisture, very little was able to develop precipitation
wise. The better forcing remained south and east of our local area
so the best development was closer to this area. Any areas of rain
that could make it this far north quickly dissipated likely due to
upper level convergence. With significant cloud cover in place
through the afternoon, destabilization was hindered which added to
the lack of support for precipitation locally. Light rain was
reported in a few spots of southern MOhave County, otherwise its
been dry. The upper levels system is expected to lift northeast in
Arizona overnight, which should give us a shot of some rain. The
best chances will be in southern Mohave County where the best
moisture and forcing will exit. Some models show better development
after midnight with moderate to briefly heavy rain south of I-40 in
Mohave County and eastern San Bernardino County, which matches up
well with higher probabilities for 0.10 or more rainfall through the
nights but also where RAP has instability developing overnight. This
would also be the area where a current uptick in radar returns south
of Blythe should shift into later tonight (something to keep an eye
on for later). Further north and west in Clark and northern Mohave
counties- models are uncertainty how to handle the overall set up
and have varying solutions on what is able to develop. Kept a slight
chance for rain southern Clark and northern Mohave through 5 AM, but
low confidence in if this will occur.

In addition to the precipitation, gusty south to southwest winds
developed across the region as the low shifted closer to the area.
Widespread gusts of 25-35 MPH were reported today, with higher gusts
up to 40 MPH reported in eastern Clark through the Colorado River
Valley and Mohave Counties. These winds will persist another few
hours then diminish through the night. The highest winds should be
the next few hours in the Colorado River Valley.

Low temperatures tonight will be mild due to the amount of cloud
cover, but will still cooler than last night as heights fall and a
cooler airmass moves into the region.

-Nickerson-
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...300 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025.
.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday.

Upper low currently spinning off the southern CA coast will continue
to help draw remnant moisture northward from tropical storm Alvin.
Dew points continue to increase across the southern half of the
forecast area with most areas seeing readings in the 40s and 50s.
This moisture will continue to increase into this evening as the
upper low slowly starts to push east. So far, the main thunderstorm
activity has been across Lincoln, central Nye, Esmeralda, and
northern Inyo counties where there has been some low level moisture
increase along with more intense heating. Increasing mid-level lapse
rates along with CAPE values around 250-500 J/kg will continue to
favor those areas through the afternoon for additional thunderstorm
development. Although there could be some brief heavy rain, the
flash flood threat remains low, but gusty winds are certainly
possible. Areas over the southern portions of the CWA where the
moisture is deeper have been slow to produce anything other than
some light showers or virga as the area remain fairly stable at this
time due to the overall cloud cover; however, as we go later into
the afternoon and especially this evening we should see the CIN
start to erode with an increase in overall instability allowing for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop. These will mainly be
focused across southern Clark, eastern San Bernardino, and southern
Mohave counties. With PWs about 250-300 percent of normal, isolated
areas of flash flooding is not out of the question.

Another concern will be the increasing southerly winds this
afternoon and evening. An increasing surface pressure gradient ahead
of the low will create some gusty south winds with a few areas
seeing gusts over 40 mph. This isn`t expected to be widespread, but
could affect Lake Mead, Lake Mohave, and the Colorado River Valley.
This will have the greatest impact on the area lakes and lower the
Colorado River with boaters needing to take some extra precautions.

As the low continues to approach the southern portions of the area,
we will see showers and thunderstorms persist overnight especially
south and east of I-15 with areas of central and southern Mohave
County along with the lower Colorado River being the more favored
areas. Due to the amount of available moisture, some of stronger
storms could produce areas of flooding.

Going into Monday, the aforementioned area of low pressure will be
over central Arizona as another low drops down the California coast.
Very little of the moisture from Alvin will be scoured out of the
area and with stronger heating and increased instability we will see
another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most of these
storms will remain over the higher terrain, but a few valley
locations could also see a few thunderstorms. This pattern will
persist through Wednesday with daily afternoon, mainly higher
elevation thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.

A northwest flow will set up over the region mid-to-late week. Along
this northwest flow, a series of shortwaves will glide down into the
southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert. With no mechanism to
shove remnant moisture out of the forecast area from the early-
week systems, these shortwaves will tap into the leftover
moisture, resulting in at least slight PoPs existing through
Thursday. Best chances will exist in the southeastern Great Basin
and eastern Mojave Desert on Wednesday and Thursday with breezy
south-southwest winds elsewhere (20-30 mph).

Despite these shortwaves, a growing ridge of high pressure over the
eastern Pacific as well as over northern Mexico will result in
increased 500 mb heights across the Desert Southwest. As such,
temperatures will continue to climb back to 4 to 6 degrees above
seasonal normals heading into the weekend, with temperatures
approaching 10 degrees above-normal heading into the next work week.
This will result in desert valleys reading high temperatures in the
100s once again, with widespread "Moderate" HeatRisk.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...South
winds with an occasional push of southeast winds persist into the
afternoon with gusts 20 to 25 knots. Overnight, chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase after 07z, but confidence remains
low that they will impact the terminal. Showers and storms are more
likely east and south of Las Vegas with CIGS dropping as low as 7k
feet at times. The main threat from any storms will be erratic gusty
winds. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will decrease, but not
go away entirely, early Monday morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00z Forecast Package...South to southwest winds
gusting 20 to 30 knots will be common across the region into this
evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms persist into the
evening across northern Inyo, Esmeralda, central Nye, and Lincoln
counties. We will need to watch for the potential of showers and
isolated thunderstorms developing overnight and pushing up the lower
Colorado River and into the Las Vegas Valley after 09z. Confidence
remains low in this scenario. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast Monday afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Soulat
AVIATION...Gorelow

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter